LOL what? There is barely any polling out on Harris v. Trump, and the one’s that have circulated are a dead heat at +/-2 in either direction. I’m personally waiting on Nate Silver’s first real forecast tomorrow.
Hey fair enough. That’s pretty shocking. Looks like I’m throwing some money down on this one. I think these odds are insane, and I’ll gladly take them.
Edit: So far that money is looking well spent. As expected, the odds have completely flipped.
I think the original predictions were accurate given the information available at the time, but Harris has been unexpectedly successful. I am pleasant surprised.
LOL what? There is barely any polling out on Harris v. Trump, and the one’s that have circulated are a dead heat at +/-2 in either direction. I’m personally waiting on Nate Silver’s first real forecast tomorrow.
His odds are about the same as Polymarket’s.
(Sorry Nate, I know this is paywalled but winning an argument is more important than your livelihood.)
Hey fair enough. That’s pretty shocking. Looks like I’m throwing some money down on this one. I think these odds are insane, and I’ll gladly take them.
Edit: So far that money is looking well spent. As expected, the odds have completely flipped.
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Ok, then who do you propose is better at predicting election results?
Nobody is good at it. They shouldnt be used to predict who will win.
How’s that looking now?
I think the original predictions were accurate given the information available at the time, but Harris has been unexpectedly successful. I am pleasant surprised.